Quote:
Originally Posted by moltuae
Interesting article 
However, he fails to mention the main challenge facing BEV mass adoption; infrastructure scalability.
In short, I think Teslas are great cars and BEVs are definitely the future but we're not ready for them yet. Maybe in another decade or two. In the short-term, the only practical way towards mass-adoption of EVs is with self-charging hybrid technologies. |
As you might expect Mark, I disagree with that analysis, for several key reasons (apart from the fact that the link is to an article that's nearly 4 years old
).
1. Energy peaks and changing dynamics in usage: as car owners switch to EVs, their modus operandi changes from "fill when you're empty" to "fill when convenient to". Smart technology for EVs helps with this, in lots of ways, from scheduling charging, using mobile apps to guide users to available charge points, accurate monitoring of range, etc, etc. Allied to which most of this energy usage is likely to be off-peak - e.g. overnight, whilst shopping in the evening/weekends, etc. This takes a while for ICE (and new EV!) owners to get their head around, but it happens, eventually.
2. Efficient storage: this in becoming much more common, whether at a local/individual level or at a macro level, and will continue to increase, further diluting the risk of "peak" issues. In addition, we've only just scratched the surface of the idea of using the cars themselves to "load balance" by feeding back into the grid, where required: that might sound far fetched, but is really no different in principle to the FIT approaches used at present.
3. Cabling and infrastructure: Whilst I agree
some of this will be needed, it's hardly a showstopper for the grid. If you work on the (reasonable) assumption that a lot of the wind/wave power is remote/coastal, then that tends to be not far from where a lot of our current nuclear sites are - and will continue to be. The same applies to "point of use" infrastructure: if Tesla can install more than 10000 superchargers as a start-up, just imagine what the established players - who actually have some cash - could do.
4. The tipping of the Hydrocarbon vs "Clean Energy" end-to-end value chain: The full cost of the former is rising all the time (including, but not limited to, greater extraction cost - fracking anyone?), whereas the latter is falling exponentially, meaning that the economic tipping point for owners of refuelling has already arrived. In that context, Hybrids make no real sense to own and run, other than that they have been cheaper than "proper" range EVs - until the arrival of the Tesla Model 3/Hyundai Kona/Ionic/etc - which have been quite expensive to buy, though this article: (
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-own-run-study) in today's news quotes a survey that says EVs are already cheaper to own and run.
Hybrids on the other hand are, almost without exception, "compliance" cars designed and built to meet emissions standards/take advantage of tax breaks/mislead naive consumers on fuel efficiency, and are likely - as the article states - to be traded in for the "real thing" once owners get wise to this. This can already be seen in the poor resale values of such vehicles, which are falling almost as quickly as diesel car values in the more advanced car markets. And how is it sensible or efficient to have two forms of propulsion in one vehicle? it's a compromise, and a poor one at that.
So, if I was a betting man, I'd stick with EVs, all the way - sorry Mark.
