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Originally Posted by tintin
(1) Run-out ICE cars: the market will be driven by not only the running cost of these cars (which is already dearer than an equivalent EV, and that will continue to be the case, even as charging costs rise), but also by the resale value, which - as I've noted above - will plummet for ICE cars.
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They might plummet, but much like what everyone said about house prices this year, the market might surprise, especially for the desirable cars that you can no longer buy. Which is what I think will happen, it's basic supply vs demand, as the supply diminishes faster than the demand, prices will strengthen, especially if everyone is trying to buy an ICE car after they've run out of charge 6 times and been to a broken charger and had enough of being an EV adopter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin
(2) ICE vehicle discounts. The primary reason that you can get around 25% off the price of a new S8 is precisely because of (1) above. Buyers of this class of car have already largely voted with their feet (see some of the - much earlier - data on the " Are Teslas any good" thread started by the Laird a few years ago) and they are buying more Model Ss and Model Xs than Tesla can make - which is why Tesla don't have to discount. And those buyers in this vehicle class who don't want to move to the "new upstart", for whatever reason, can now choose reasonable EV options from established players like Audi, Mercedes, or Jaguar - though they tend to worry more about range and recharging  aiming to hijack your thread, and I do think your S8 is rather clever, and a much nicer place to be in than my Model S!
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Have to strongly disagree here, this class of car suffered appalling early depreciation before Elon Musk was a glint in his father's eye.
It's everything to do with supply vs demand again, there is just no demand for cars at the 2nd hand price point from buyers who want cheaper running and maintenance costs
Where demand is high, depreciation tends to be much slower - e.g. Porsche Macan, BMW X5 Hybrid (low company car tax, cannot get a factory order for over 6 months now), low production run specials such as 911 GT4/3.
Look at how much stronger residuals are for Audi SUVs compared to their saloon equivalents, or compare an A6 Avant against an A6 Saloon, it's all about higher demand from the buyers.
Final note, if prices do plummet, then I'll be a happy buyer of a few 2nd hand ICE cars
