[Reffro]

Firstly, you seem to have conceded the point that they are the biggest selling car (not "truck", or whatever the US call the F-150 types of pick-ups etc, which isn't really relevant in other major territories, or to Tesla) in the US, using US data. You then seem to suggest that the data is simplistic or inaccurate is some way, though it looked to me like it was referencing industry data in the table that I posted. Which is it? Maybe you could clarify to help those of use who (unlike you) don't work with this data daily and sell it to the established ICE car sellers?.

OK, in the USA, the market is separated between Cars and Trucks. Cars are just that, Trucks include both Pickups/Vans and most importantly SUV's. SUV's are considered to be Cars everywhere else, so if you read the article and think that they are comparing apples with apples with a global view of the markets (or even a British view), you'd be misled. If you include the SUV's in your analysis of Car sales/revenue, which I would, then Model 3 got trumped by RAV4 in both sales and revenue.

Secondly, in your reply you've not disputed or mentioned my comment about Tesla being more profitable than any other manufacturer, yet your original point seemed to at least imply that they couldn't make a profit and were going to fail? -

OK, lets put this to bed. Tesla are not the most profitable OEM and they are not even close. The article talks about margin on the Model 3, not profit. Yes , Tesla have reported great margins on the Model 3, they produced in Q3 2018, but they sold far fewer vehicles overall.

By the way this is what Porsche did for a great many years, small numbers with huge margins. But Porsche did it without the debt mountain, so didn't need to meet junk bond debt repayments etc etc.

Thirdly, your point about debt is interesting, but again feels a bit selective really, as you've not mentioned the fact that - unlike Tesla - other major US companies had to be rescued from going under by government bailouts, costing tens of billions.

So, whilst Tesla might have been on shaky ground in the early days (around when I ordered my Model S ), I think it's hard to argue that this is the case any more

Tesla were only building the Roadster at about the time the bailouts happened. GM and Chrysler took billions, Ford didn't need to, but did receive some loans. GM and Chrysler are seen as being to big to be allowed to fail, Tesla probably isn't...In the event of a default on existing debt, the company may continue is some form or other, but it will be investors and banks that end up taking a haircut.

At the time you ordered your car I could argue Tesla were in a far better financial situation, as they have continued to burn through loans and investors' cash since then.

However, the ICE supply chains, including the big manufacturing plants and the retail chains that got fat and lazy over the last decade, are the ones who will really struggle to adapt and should have acted sooner, but were too arrogant to do so.

Possibly or even probably, but the big OEM's are going to adapt or die. Hence the competition is only going to get more intense. Tesla's revenues are built on the fact that they are selling highly optioned Model 3 cars, not the $35,000 car they promoted, it remains to be seen how many people who got on board with the deposits, will continue with a purchase of a vehicle at $60,000+.

So I hardly think your "swallow analogy" is relevant. Tesla isn't coming, it's here now,and the US is just a preview of what they will also do in Europe and the Far East. Others just aren't ready, and I'm not sure what "primed to arrive" means in practice - only JLR have actually launched a comparable EV, and are struggling with their production, as they haven't sorted out their supply chain: the others are slower and have been much worse at actually making this happen.

So to quote this latest Autocar Tesla review:

"Any rival wanting to beat the Model 3 is going to have to be very good indeed"

I'm not arguing the Model 3 is not a good car. It is, but then again the car reviewed is not $35,000 and is not on sale anywhere but the USA for now. Jaguar do seem to be struggling, but then so did Tesla, hence the recently announced FBI investigations, which I don't believe will come to much, but do highlight the struggles Tesla had, particularly when they kept promising so much.

I avoided the use of flash in the pan and went with one swallow instead. Others are struggling, Tesla is still not meeting its own bold projections, remember that people who put a deposit on a Model 3 in the UK were to have started to receive their cars by now.....Reading the website today and understanding how they have made similar promises in the past, you are looking at 2020 before they get here, with no mention of pricing yet.

There are still many challenges to be overcome, I'm of the opinion that they are only going to get bigger.