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Old 10th November 2018, 06:12 AM
tintin tintin is offline
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Oh dear. It looks like you're keen to continue the to'ing and fro'ing on this thread, without really getting the original point of it, which is that Tesla has succeeded in completely changing the game on this, and is also - as a company - succeeding way beyond where 99% of people thought they would get to.

I'm happy that I've dealt with your original point below, and that your comments since then haven't really made any difference to the core point in my original post, and also that I've dealt with those comments too: I could continue this by explaining why margin vs profit isn't a significant difference for Tesla, give details of how Ford downsized to deal with it's strategic errors in the same bailout decade, point out why a RAV4 isn't really relevant to Tesla, or that the Porsche/VW relationship makes the Porsche comparison a bit "apples and pears" , or any of your other small points of detail in your last post, but I'm not sure that's going to make any real difference to you (and will probably bore everyone else on here ).

I'll just say this to close this - when I ordered my Model S in 2015, the threats to Tesla were existential, not operational, and VAG was talking about investing 20Bn+ in new ICE products. That's completely changed now, there will be fallout from existing ICE manufacturers, Tesla won't be going away, and the car industry is completely changing as a result of them.

Maybe if you turn up to our annual meet one year we can continue this discussion over a beer - but I think the automotive world may have moved a long way by then, and you may be driving an EV


Quote:
Originally Posted by Reffro View Post
Tesla are neither the biggest selling Manufacturer in the USA let alone North America, nor do they have the highest revenues of any manufacturer. 17th by volume, 16th by revenue for Cars in the USA.

They may have huge market capitalisation, but they have bugger all cash left, huge liabilities and only squeaked a profit in Q3 2018.... and a whole of load of precedents pointing to a big fail.

Tesla got a march on the product, but haven't actually profited from it, nor are they likely too. The competition becomes so fierce from now on that Tesla will struggle to maintain a margin if they don't sort out their production, oh and did I mention the debt!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reffro View Post
OK, in the USA, the market is separated between Cars and Trucks. Cars are just that, Trucks include both Pickups/Vans and most importantly SUV's. SUV's are considered to be Cars everywhere else, so if you read the article and think that they are comparing apples with apples with a global view of the markets (or even a British view), you'd be misled. If you include the SUV's in your analysis of Car sales/revenue, which I would, then Model 3 got trumped by RAV4 in both sales and revenue.

OK, lets put this to bed. Tesla are not the most profitable OEM and they are not even close. The article talks about margin on the Model 3, not profit. Yes , Tesla have reported great margins on the Model 3, they produced in Q3 2018, but they sold far fewer vehicles overall.

By the way this is what Porsche did for a great many years, small numbers with huge margins. But Porsche did it without the debt mountain, so didn't need to meet junk bond debt repayments etc etc.

Tesla were only building the Roadster at about the time the bailouts happened. GM and Chrysler took billions, Ford didn't need to, but did receive some loans. GM and Chrysler are seen as being to big to be allowed to fail, Tesla probably isn't...In the event of a default on existing debt, the company may continue is some form or other, but it will be investors and banks that end up taking a haircut.

At the time you ordered your car I could argue Tesla were in a far better financial situation, as they have continued to burn through loans and investors' cash since then.

Possibly or even probably, but the big OEM's are going to adapt or die. Hence the competition is only going to get more intense. Tesla's revenues are built on the fact that they are selling highly optioned Model 3 cars, not the $35,000 car they promoted, it remains to be seen how many people who got on board with the deposits, will continue with a purchase of a vehicle at $60,000+.

I'm not arguing the Model 3 is not a good car. It is, but then again the car reviewed is not $35,000 and is not on sale anywhere but the USA for now. Jaguar do seem to be struggling, but then so did Tesla, hence the recently announced FBI investigations, which I don't believe will come to much, but do highlight the struggles Tesla had, particularly when they kept promising so much.

I avoided the use of flash in the pan and went with one swallow instead. Others are struggling, Tesla is still not meeting its own bold projections, remember that people who put a deposit on a Model 3 in the UK were to have started to receive their cars by now.....Reading the website today and understanding how they have made similar promises in the past, you are looking at 2020 before they get here, with no mention of pricing yet.

There are still many challenges to be overcome, I'm of the opinion that they are only going to get bigger.
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Autos Autos everywhere...
(1) 2015 Tesla Model S: (was 85D, now 90D ). Silent and deadly, and very fast... But not as fast as Ian's M3P-
(2) 2002 D2 S8 Final Edition: Bulletproof and faultless: Brilliant Black with Extended (Red!) Leather. Three-times winner of Best D2 1st prize
(3) 1997 Fiat Coupe 20v Turbo: Scots (! ) Green. Fragile, but beautiful.
(4) 2010 Fiat Panda 100HP. White Pandamonium (Final Edition!!). Pure old-fashioned 6-speed go-karting.
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