D5 is a bit clever

[tintin]

Originally Posted by sarg

As for the value of ICE cars, I predict a rush to buy the last available cars if the 2030 date goes ahead, and then them being in high demand due to electric cars still not meeting the needs of a big enough proportion of car users.

The key thing this illustration does not take into account is discounts off the list price.

We all know an S8 would attract a discount of circa £30,000 off the list price. How much could I expect to get discounted off a similarly priced Model S?

I for one am already making plans about what my last ICE car will be, but it will be the biggest petrol engined car I can buy around 2029-2030, preferably a V8.

The availability of petrol filling stations is not going to suddenly disappear from 2030. By then I will likely be also running an EV, so it'd be a 2nd car anyway, so the fuelling costs increasing would have a limited impact.

I don't disagree with a lot of what you've said in your earlier post, but would just make a couple of points on what you're said here:

(1) Run-out ICE cars: the market will be driven by not only the running cost of these cars (which is already dearer than an equivalent EV, and that will continue to be the case, even as charging costs rise), but also by the resale value, which - as I've noted above - will plummet for ICE cars.

(2) ICE vehicle discounts. The primary reason that you can get around 25% off the price of a new S8 is precisely because of (1) above. Buyers of this class of car have already largely voted with their feet (see some of the - much earlier - data on the "Are Teslas any good" thread started by the Laird a few years ago) and they are buying more Model Ss and Model Xs than Tesla can make - which is why Tesla don't have to discount. And those buyers in this vehicle class who don't want to move to the "new upstart", for whatever reason, can now choose reasonable EV options from established players like Audi, Mercedes, or Jaguar - though they tend to worry more about range and recharging

Finally, if you needed any more evidence that this transition will continue to accelerate faster than you expect, just consider this announcement (today!) from Honda:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/e...rs-europe-2022

confirming that they'll not sell pure ICE cars in Europe after 2022 - that's just over one year from now - and that's from a manufacturer that's been one of the slowest of the established players in EV adoption.

It'll be interesting to come back in a year and see what's changed then - just like going back to Jim/The Laird's thread is interesting to see how some of the doubts raised on that thread have largely proven to be incorrect - and I'm not saying don't buy your next V8, just be aware of how quickly this world is changing around us.


PS to Nick: I'm not aiming to hijack your thread, and I do think your S8 is rather clever, and a much nicer place to be in than my Model S!