A8 Parts Forum  

Go Back   A8 Parts Forum > General Natter > Daily banter

Daily banter For everything, and anything that doesnt fit in elsewhere

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 2nd December 2020, 04:34 PM
ainarssems ainarssems is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Rushden, Northants
Posts: 3,799
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J i m s t e r View Post
Wonder how long fossil fuel infrastructure will be around for, after 2030? I mean, you'd expect another ten years, for people buying a new fossil fuel car in 2029.

I hope electric cars get longer-lasting batteries, because I can't afford a new one and I wonder when buying a ten year old EV, if the battery will be performing at reduced capacity once ten years old.

Maybe 2030 battery tech will be good for 20 years by then.

We think a lot alike


Battery life is more about discharge cycles than years you would expect 500-1000 discharge cycles before capacity drops to 50% on older batteries, newer should be better but obviously they have not been around long enough to know for sure.

24kWh Nissan Leaf battery is about 50%capacity after 100k miles, Tesla Model S being bigger car uses a bit more electricity but I don't think the difference is huge so say 70kWh is almost 3 times larger so could do 3 times as many miles for the same number of discharge cycles or 100kWh battery 4 times more and Teslas batteries may be better, lasting more cycles.
__________________
Currently 8less
2011 Q7 S Line 3.0TDI, 2016 Tesla Model S 90D

8 history:
2006 A8 Sport 4.2TDI quattro SOLD,
1997 S8, reached end of life with gearbox failure
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 2nd December 2020, 05:21 PM
roberto's Avatar
roberto roberto is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,968
Default

off topic now but

electric is not the answer

lithium Will run out before oil

and i will run out of life before the end of derv

you young guns will end up with billions of tons of nuclear waste and waste batteries
__________________
Looking for the Holy Grail Audi ..
2018 VW Caravelle Executive T6
2010 A6-C6 3.0tdi LeMans Quattro
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 2nd December 2020, 06:06 PM
J i m s t e r J i m s t e r is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 141
Default

They'll have some next-gen battery stuff creeping out of the labs once they have got return on the investment they made to make all the lithium and cobalt batteries. Then there is the tin-foil-hat-wearer in me that watched "Tucker" (not Jenkins; the car man) and think the best tech has been buried next to the Ark of the Covenant for make benefit Illuminati etc.

But re: nuclear waste etc - maybe one of these solutions could be the next big thing. :

https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/...r-over-the-air

Article mentions foldable batteries. Maybe they could make the shell/body parts actual lightweight batteries to get the mass down = increase efficiency.

But still wondering about grid capacity at the generating end of the line... Maybe we should ask a D5, they do seem jolly clever sorts.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 3rd December 2020, 04:20 PM
briang9's Avatar
briang9 briang9 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Scotland
Posts: 2,817
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Conan_the_Librarian View Post
I bought my first S8 as a 10yo at 1/7 of its sale price. Looking forward to 2030!
We need to be at least 17 to drive in Scotland
__________________



Audi S8 2002, Black (even the chrome bits)
Audi RS6 Avant 2008, Daytona Grey
Maserati Granturismo 2008, Metallic Nero Carbonio
Audi S8 2015, Daytona Grey
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 3rd December 2020, 05:01 PM
tintin tintin is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Manchester
Posts: 3,560
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by briang9 View Post
We need to be at least 17 to drive in Scotland
Good spot Brian
__________________

Autos Autos everywhere...
(1) 2015 Tesla Model S: (was 85D, now 90D ). Silent and deadly, and very fast... But not as fast as Ian's M3P-
(2) 2002 D2 S8 Final Edition: Bulletproof and faultless: Brilliant Black with Extended (Red!) Leather. Three-times winner of Best D2 1st prize
(3) 1997 Fiat Coupe 20v Turbo: Scots (! ) Green. Fragile, but beautiful.
(4) 2010 Fiat Panda 100HP. White Pandamonium (Final Edition!!). Pure old-fashioned 6-speed go-karting.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 3rd December 2020, 09:05 PM
tintin tintin is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Manchester
Posts: 3,560
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by J i m s t e r View Post
Wonder how long fossil fuel infrastructure will be around for, after 2030? I mean, you'd expect another ten years, for people buying a new fossil fuel car in 2029.

I hope electric cars get longer-lasting batteries, because I can't afford a new one and I wonder when buying a ten year old EV, if the battery will be performing at reduced capacity once ten years old.

Maybe 2030 battery tech will be good for 20 years by then.
The tipping point has already passed for ICE/EV transition, and will continue to accelerate. Buying most new fossil cars - other than a cheap disposable one - anytime from 2025 onwards would be financial lunacy, as the resale value will be close to zero, unless it's a high value specialist vehicle (e.g. a Ferrari).
Even buyers of those specialist types of ICE cars will be faced with significantly higher running costs due to dwindling infrastructure and the resultant high costs of maintaining such a network, so between now and 2025 ICE car ownership will quickly become a "niche" pastime.

Also the "battery capacity" point is a bit of a smokescreen and irrelevant: anyone who uses this argument should ask themselves whether the performance of their 10 year old ICE engine is as good as when it was new, as that's the equivalent comparator - except that the EV battery can (and does) get recycled and used elsewhere once their useful vehicle life has finished, not scrapped like a combustion engine does.

It's also worth thinking about relative depreciation on ICE cars and EVs. Here's some figures that might give pause for though (S8 vs Model S, assuming same purchase price, kept for 5 years, doing 20k per annum - i.e. my usage history). I ran this data through this (US...) website https://caredge.com/depreciation for 2 scenarios: (1) buying new, and (2) buying a 5 year old car, and the results are a bit interesting:

(A) NEW PURCHASE - S8 vs MODEL S:
  • An Audi S8 will depreciate 65% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $21,335.
  • A Tesla Model S will depreciate 51% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $34,700.

(B) BUYING A 5 YEAR OLD S8 vs MODEL S:
  • An Audi S8 will depreciate a further 35% from years 6 to 10 years and have a 10 year resale value of $459
  • A Tesla Model S will depreciate a further 30% from years 6 to 10 and have a 10 year resale value of $5,333.
For these reasons, I can't see why anyone would consider shelling out significant (i.e. >£10k) amounts of cash on any "premium" or large ICE vehicle from this point onwards. But others may disagree...
__________________

Autos Autos everywhere...
(1) 2015 Tesla Model S: (was 85D, now 90D ). Silent and deadly, and very fast... But not as fast as Ian's M3P-
(2) 2002 D2 S8 Final Edition: Bulletproof and faultless: Brilliant Black with Extended (Red!) Leather. Three-times winner of Best D2 1st prize
(3) 1997 Fiat Coupe 20v Turbo: Scots (! ) Green. Fragile, but beautiful.
(4) 2010 Fiat Panda 100HP. White Pandamonium (Final Edition!!). Pure old-fashioned 6-speed go-karting.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 3rd December 2020, 09:36 PM
tonupkid's Avatar
tonupkid tonupkid is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Near Lichfield, Staffordshire
Posts: 2,245
Default

In answer to a couple of points
Tesla are developing a car that uses the battery as part of the frame. Thereby reducing weight, adding strength and moving the actual batteries further inboard away from potential damage in a side impact.
Tesla aim to recycle their batteries and recover the lithium for use in production of new batteries.
__________________
A journey of a thousand+ (epic) miles, begins with a single step, (to the door of an 8). Lau Tzu
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 4th December 2020, 12:56 PM
homer simpson's Avatar
homer simpson homer simpson is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 1,142
Default

I've never seen a 10 year old S8 for less than £500, be it a D2 or D3. Prices have held well for good examples. The D4 is getting close to 10 years and I don't see that dropping below £10k anytime soon
__________________
2008 (facelift) S8 with B&O, ACC, glass sunroof, reversing camera, front and rear heated seats, ceramic brakes, homelink, electric side and rear blinds, ski load through, heated fan washer jets, remote boot closing, de-flapped manifold, fridge, umbrella holder
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 4th December 2020, 03:02 PM
sarg sarg is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: West Northamptonshire
Posts: 1,999
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin View Post
The tipping point has already passed for ICE/EV transition, and will continue to accelerate. Buying most new fossil cars - other than a cheap disposable one - anytime from 2025 onwards would be financial lunacy, as the resale value will be close to zero, unless it's a high value specialist vehicle (e.g. a Ferrari).

Even buyers of those specialist types of ICE cars will be faced with significantly higher running costs due to dwindling infrastructure and the resultant high costs of maintaining such a network, so between now and 2025 ICE car ownership will quickly become a "niche" pastime.
Usually when you post Stephen, I find myself nodding my head in agreement, but I have to disagree on this occasion.

First off, I think that the government's target to stop pure ICE sales from 2030 is overly optimistic and almost certainly unachievable. We simply will not have sufficient charging infrastructure in place by that time. A local newspaper article made me laugh after the the builders of the motorway network's newest service station patted themselves on the back for delivering a whole whopping 24 charging points.

24! They need 240, if not more, if the 2030 target is going to be met.

https://www.rugbyadvertiser.co.uk/bu...-ports-3022366

Second, even if by some miracle we did get an adequate charging infrastructure in place, do we even have the capacity to generate enough electricity to cope with the demand? It wasn't that long ago that the numbers of kettles going on during the Coronation Street advert breaks were enough to decimate the supply.

I can see this date being pushed back to 2040-2045 realistically.

Back in 2006 I moved to Harpenden, near the bottom end of the M1, around the same time as they started widening the M1 to 4 lanes.

14.5 years later, they are still doing it! What chance we'll have a wide enough charging infrastructure with this rate of progress?

As for the value of ICE cars, I predict a rush to buy the last available cars if the 2030 date goes ahead, and then them being in high demand due to electric cars still not meeting the needs of a big enough proportion of car users.

I've looked really hard at buying an electric car in recent months, but we simply could not make do with one alone and would have to have an ICE vehicle as a 2nd car.

With the extra cost of running a 2nd vehicle, plus the high purchase cost of an EV, it's just not worth it right now.

There are tax breaks for the company car driver, and I could buy one as a company car, but with the advent of IR35 rules coming in next April, I may again be forced to move to a different business model meaning I have to liquidate the company. What happens to that company EV then - I would have to return it to the leasing company and have to pay off the remaining months. If I had bought the EV, I would have to sell the EV, at a potentially high loss, as part of the company liquidation.

So, all in all, I cannot take these risks, not now, and not for the foreseeable future.

I did get very close to buying despite all these risks, but the thing that tipped me over the edge to not buy was the lack of charging availability, and for the non-Tesla owner, the stupidly difficultly of such a wide range of different charging providers and their apps, and the frequency of those charging outlets being out of order.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tintin View Post
It's also worth thinking about relative depreciation on ICE cars and EVs. Here's some figures that might give pause for though (S8 vs Model S, assuming same purchase price, kept for 5 years, doing 20k per annum - i.e. my usage history). I ran this data through this (US...) website https://caredge.com/depreciation for 2 scenarios: (1) buying new, and (2) buying a 5 year old car, and the results are a bit interesting:

(A) NEW PURCHASE - S8 vs MODEL S:
  • An Audi S8 will depreciate 65% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $21,335.
  • A Tesla Model S will depreciate 51% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $34,700.

(B) BUYING A 5 YEAR OLD S8 vs MODEL S:
  • An Audi S8 will depreciate a further 35% from years 6 to 10 years and have a 10 year resale value of $459
  • A Tesla Model S will depreciate a further 30% from years 6 to 10 and have a 10 year resale value of $5,333.
For these reasons, I can't see why anyone would consider shelling out significant (i.e. >£10k) amounts of cash on any "premium" or large ICE vehicle from this point onwards. But others may disagree...
The key thing this illustration does not take into account is discounts off the list price.

We all know an S8 would attract a discount of circa £30,000 off the list price. How much could I expect to get discounted off a similarly priced Model S?

I for one am already making plans about what my last ICE car will be, but it will be the biggest petrol engined car I can buy around 2029-2030, preferably a V8.

The availability of petrol filling stations is not going to suddenly disappear from 2030. By then I will likely be also running an EV, so it'd be a 2nd car anyway, so the fuelling costs increasing would have a limited impact.
__________________
2019 BMW M5 (my daily driver)
2002 Mark's D2 S8 FE
2020 BMW M340d xDrive (Anely's daily driver)
2000 FL D2 4.2 QS - SOLD 2011

Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 4th December 2020, 03:17 PM
sarg sarg is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: West Northamptonshire
Posts: 1,999
Default

Also...

Click image for larger version

Name:	Elon Musk.jpg
Views:	140
Size:	103.0 KB
ID:	24767

__________________
2019 BMW M5 (my daily driver)
2002 Mark's D2 S8 FE
2020 BMW M340d xDrive (Anely's daily driver)
2000 FL D2 4.2 QS - SOLD 2011

Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 02:43 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.