We think a lot alike


Battery life is more about discharge cycles than years you would expect 500-1000 discharge cycles before capacity drops to 50% on older batteries, newer should be better but obviously they have not been around long enough to know for sure.

24kWh Nissan Leaf battery is about 50%capacity after 100k miles, Tesla Model S being bigger car uses a bit more electricity but I don't think the difference is huge so say 70kWh is almost 3 times larger so could do 3 times as many miles for the same number of discharge cycles or 100kWh battery 4 times more and Teslas batteries may be better, lasting more cycles.

off topic now but

electric is not the answer

lithium Will run out before oil

and i will run out of life before the end of derv

you young guns will end up with billions of tons of nuclear waste and waste batteries

They'll have some next-gen battery stuff creeping out of the labs once they have got return on the investment they made to make all the lithium and cobalt batteries. Then there is the tin-foil-hat-wearer in me that watched "Tucker" (not Jenkins; the car man) and think the best tech has been buried next to the Ark of the Covenant for make benefit Illuminati etc.

But re: nuclear waste etc - maybe one of these solutions could be the next big thing. :

https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/...r-over-the-air

Article mentions foldable batteries. Maybe they could make the shell/body parts actual lightweight batteries to get the mass down = increase efficiency.

But still wondering about grid capacity at the generating end of the line... Maybe we should ask a D5, they do seem jolly clever sorts.

We need to be at least 17 to drive in Scotland :p

:ROFL: Good spot Brian +++

The tipping point has already passed for ICE/EV transition, and will continue to accelerate. Buying most new fossil cars - other than a cheap disposable one - anytime from 2025 onwards would be financial lunacy, as the resale value will be close to zero, unless it's a high value specialist vehicle (e.g. a Ferrari).
Even buyers of those specialist types of ICE cars will be faced with significantly higher running costs due to dwindling infrastructure and the resultant high costs of maintaining such a network, so between now and 2025 ICE car ownership will quickly become a "niche" pastime.

Also the "battery capacity" point is a bit of a smokescreen and irrelevant: anyone who uses this argument should ask themselves whether the performance of their 10 year old ICE engine is as good as when it was new, as that's the equivalent comparator - except that the EV battery can (and does) get recycled and used elsewhere once their useful vehicle life has finished, not scrapped like a combustion engine does.

It's also worth thinking about relative depreciation on ICE cars and EVs. Here's some figures that might give pause for though (S8 vs Model S, assuming same purchase price, kept for 5 years, doing 20k per annum - i.e. my usage history). I ran this data through this (US...) website https://caredge.com/depreciation for 2 scenarios: (1) buying new, and (2) buying a 5 year old car, and the results are a bit interesting:

(A) NEW PURCHASE - S8 vs MODEL S:

• An Audi S8 will depreciate 65% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $21,335.
• A Tesla Model S will depreciate 51% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $34,700.

(B) BUYING A 5 YEAR OLD S8 vs MODEL S:

• An Audi S8 will depreciate a further 35% from years 6 to 10 years and have a 10 year resale value of $459
• A Tesla Model S will depreciate a further 30% from years 6 to 10 and have a 10 year resale value of $5,333.

For these reasons, I can't see why anyone would consider shelling out significant (i.e. >£10k) amounts of cash on any "premium" or large ICE vehicle from this point onwards. But others may disagree...

In answer to a couple of points
Tesla are developing a car that uses the battery as part of the frame. Thereby reducing weight, adding strength and moving the actual batteries further inboard away from potential damage in a side impact.
Tesla aim to recycle their batteries and recover the lithium for use in production of new batteries.

I've never seen a 10 year old S8 for less than £500, be it a D2 or D3. Prices have held well for good examples. The D4 is getting close to 10 years and I don't see that dropping below £10k anytime soon

Usually when you post Stephen, I find myself nodding my head in agreement, but I have to disagree on this occasion.

First off, I think that the government's target to stop pure ICE sales from 2030 is overly optimistic and almost certainly unachievable. We simply will not have sufficient charging infrastructure in place by that time. A local newspaper article made me laugh after the the builders of the motorway network's newest service station patted themselves on the back for delivering a whole whopping 24 charging points.

24! They need 240, if not more, if the 2030 target is going to be met.

https://www.rugbyadvertiser.co.uk/bu...-ports-3022366

Second, even if by some miracle we did get an adequate charging infrastructure in place, do we even have the capacity to generate enough electricity to cope with the demand? It wasn't that long ago that the numbers of kettles going on during the Coronation Street advert breaks were enough to decimate the supply.

I can see this date being pushed back to 2040-2045 realistically.

Back in 2006 I moved to Harpenden, near the bottom end of the M1, around the same time as they started widening the M1 to 4 lanes.

14.5 years later, they are still doing it! What chance we'll have a wide enough charging infrastructure with this rate of progress?

As for the value of ICE cars, I predict a rush to buy the last available cars if the 2030 date goes ahead, and then them being in high demand due to electric cars still not meeting the needs of a big enough proportion of car users.

I've looked really hard at buying an electric car in recent months, but we simply could not make do with one alone and would have to have an ICE vehicle as a 2nd car.

With the extra cost of running a 2nd vehicle, plus the high purchase cost of an EV, it's just not worth it right now.

There are tax breaks for the company car driver, and I could buy one as a company car, but with the advent of IR35 rules coming in next April, I may again be forced to move to a different business model meaning I have to liquidate the company. What happens to that company EV then - I would have to return it to the leasing company and have to pay off the remaining months. If I had bought the EV, I would have to sell the EV, at a potentially high loss, as part of the company liquidation.

So, all in all, I cannot take these risks, not now, and not for the foreseeable future.

I did get very close to buying despite all these risks, but the thing that tipped me over the edge to not buy was the lack of charging availability, and for the non-Tesla owner, the stupidly difficultly of such a wide range of different charging providers and their apps, and the frequency of those charging outlets being out of order.

The key thing this illustration does not take into account is discounts off the list price.

We all know an S8 would attract a discount of circa £30,000 off the list price. How much could I expect to get discounted off a similarly priced Model S?

I for one am already making plans about what my last ICE car will be, but it will be the biggest petrol engined car I can buy around 2029-2030, preferably a V8.

The availability of petrol filling stations is not going to suddenly disappear from 2030. By then I will likely be also running an EV, so it'd be a 2nd car anyway, so the fuelling costs increasing would have a limited impact.

Also...

Attachment 24767

:ROFL: