I don't disagree with a lot of what you've said in your earlier post, but would just make a couple of points on what you're said here:

(1) Run-out ICE cars: the market will be driven by not only the running cost of these cars (which is already dearer than an equivalent EV, and that will continue to be the case, even as charging costs rise), but also by the resale value, which - as I've noted above - will plummet for ICE cars.

(2) ICE vehicle discounts. The primary reason that you can get around 25% off the price of a new S8 is precisely because of (1) above. Buyers of this class of car have already largely voted with their feet (see some of the - much earlier - data on the "Are Teslas any good" thread started by the Laird a few years ago) and they are buying more Model Ss and Model Xs than Tesla can make - which is why Tesla don't have to discount. And those buyers in this vehicle class who don't want to move to the "new upstart", for whatever reason, can now choose reasonable EV options from established players like Audi, Mercedes, or Jaguar - though they tend to worry more about range and recharging :rolleyes:

Finally, if you needed any more evidence that this transition will continue to accelerate faster than you expect, just consider this announcement (today!) from Honda:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/e...rs-europe-2022

confirming that they'll not sell pure ICE cars in Europe after 2022 - that's just over one year from now - and that's from a manufacturer that's been one of the slowest of the established players in EV adoption.

It'll be interesting to come back in a year and see what's changed then - just like going back to Jim/The Laird's thread is interesting to see how some of the doubts raised on that thread have largely proven to be incorrect - and I'm not saying don't buy your next V8, just be aware of how quickly this world is changing around us.


PS to Nick: I'm not aiming to hijack your thread, and I do think your S8 is rather clever, and a much nicer place to be in than my Model S!

They might plummet, but much like what everyone said about house prices this year, the market might surprise, especially for the desirable cars that you can no longer buy. Which is what I think will happen, it's basic supply vs demand, as the supply diminishes faster than the demand, prices will strengthen, especially if everyone is trying to buy an ICE car after they've run out of charge 6 times and been to a broken charger and had enough of being an EV adopter.

Have to strongly disagree here, this class of car suffered appalling early depreciation before Elon Musk was a glint in his father's eye.

It's everything to do with supply vs demand again, there is just no demand for cars at the 2nd hand price point from buyers who want cheaper running and maintenance costs

Where demand is high, depreciation tends to be much slower - e.g. Porsche Macan, BMW X5 Hybrid (low company car tax, cannot get a factory order for over 6 months now), low production run specials such as 911 GT4/3.

Look at how much stronger residuals are for Audi SUVs compared to their saloon equivalents, or compare an A6 Avant against an A6 Saloon, it's all about higher demand from the buyers.

Final note, if prices do plummet, then I'll be a happy buyer of a few 2nd hand ICE cars +++

i totally agree Sarg..

ive been watching car prices since Jan this year and saving in a watch list..
as soon as the first lockdown ended all prices went up and cars i were looking at Sold in days and its still continuing..
im talking £20,000 - £30,000 cars and all Diesel
i was quite shocked as they rose up in price by 3-5 grand and Sold..
im still looking..
sadly the only car thats come down in price is the D5..
but hey thats a good thng for purchasers..

time to collect something derv i think Audi A2?
or any popular euro 6 model?

I'd buy a mint condition Derv A2 in a heartbeat - but only to convert it to electric :ROFL: . Some guys near Dublin are quoting ~1k for these conversions +++

A2’s in decent shape are getting pretty scarce.
Can you post some more details of these conversions available near Dublin ?

Sure - here's the link: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/e...ttle-%C2%A3900 (Disclaimer - not investigated in detail/verified)

[quote=tintin;161392]I'd buy a mint condition Derv A2 in a heartbeat - but only to convert it to electric :ROFL:

my friend has a nice dolphin grey one for sale last time i saw it the body was mint, but then most are being alluminium

Thanks
There’s also a guy who converted a 1993 Audi 80 Avant which is pretty cool but I suspect he has quite a bit of money pumped into it.
https://youtu.be/jaykSYwI_zk

A2 +++

Brilliant, light, well designed runabout and mine has been excellent for the last five years. Cannot think of much better with a lower impact on the world than a good used little A2.

Buying a car that's been converted, messed around. That's something to do if you enjoy viewing the world from the hard shoulder and look to strike up a relationship with a vehicle recovery driver.

Sarg touched on the issue with A/S8 prices. Salons, especially big ones, are a dying breed. It's SUV's all the way at the moment and the larger the better. I bet you'd be lucky to get a significant discount of a Q8 whatever power plant.

EV's are coming, but I see no reason why the price of ICE will plummet when they cease production, quite the reverse.

Finally: The only thing in common between an Audi S8 and a Tesla S is the letter S. They are very different beasts.