Interesting article
However, he fails to mention the main challenge facing BEV mass adoption; infrastructure scalability.
Presently the number of BEVs on the road is relatively low, yet I believe queuing for a charging spot at service stations is already becoming quite common. But there's an even bigger problem to address. Even if you can install new charging stations fast enough to keep up with BEV sales, how do you generate enough electricity to keep up with the charging demand of all those vehicles? Considering that to fully charge a BEV probably takes about as much energy as the average home consumes in a single day, unless we can make every charging point self-sufficient, we're probably going to need to double the capacity of the National Grid to get anywhere close to mass adoption.
The problem is, the
National Grid is already being pushed to the limit, especially during winter months. If it's to cope with the extra demand, we'll need a LOT more wind farms and power stations, not to mention thousands of miles of extra cables to carry the load. While that's all technically possible, in practice it will cost billions and take several decades to achieve. Generating electricity local to the charging stations is another possibility but, to generate electrical energy on a par with that which is currently provided by fossil fuel-based service stations, every service station would need to invest in biomass generators, wind turbines, solar panels, etc ... which would also require a lot of land.
As much as I like Teslas and believe that BEVs are the future, unfortunately, in the short term at least, I believe HEVs are the way forward. The article suggests that most car manufacturers have 'got it wrong' by focusing on HEVs, citing a trend in which the Prius became "the #1 traded-in car for a Tesla Model 3 in the US". Well that's hardly surprising since most Prius drivers will already be EV-converts, making the Prius a stepping stone in the leap toward BEVs. Also, most car buyers only care about the short-term benefits and the practicalities of owning a BEV right now (or for as long as they plan to own the car at least). But what happens when there are millions more BEVs on the road and long queues at the charging stations? Or worse, what if large-scale BEV adoption leads to power rationing because the power stations can't cope with the demand? If the situation gets bad, we could even see a ban on BEVs and owners rushing to trade them in for HEVs.
In short, I think Teslas are great cars and BEVs are definitely the future but we're not ready for them yet. Maybe in another decade or two. In the short-term, the only practical way towards mass-adoption of EVs is with self-charging hybrid technologies.