Quote:
Originally Posted by J i m s t e r
Wonder how long fossil fuel infrastructure will be around for, after 2030? I mean, you'd expect another ten years, for people buying a new fossil fuel car in 2029.
I hope electric cars get longer-lasting batteries, because I can't afford a new one and I wonder when buying a ten year old EV, if the battery will be performing at reduced capacity once ten years old.
Maybe 2030 battery tech will be good for 20 years by then.
|
The tipping point has already passed for ICE/EV transition, and will continue to accelerate. Buying most new fossil cars - other than a cheap disposable one - anytime from 2025 onwards would be financial lunacy, as the resale value will be close to zero, unless it's a high value specialist vehicle (e.g. a Ferrari).
Even buyers of those specialist types of ICE cars will be faced with significantly higher running costs due to dwindling infrastructure and the resultant high costs of maintaining such a network, so between now and 2025 ICE car ownership will quickly become a "niche" pastime.
Also the "battery capacity" point is a bit of a smokescreen and irrelevant: anyone who uses this argument should ask themselves whether the performance of their 10 year old ICE engine is as good as when it was new, as that's the equivalent comparator - except that the EV battery can (and does) get recycled and used elsewhere once their useful vehicle life has finished, not scrapped like a combustion engine does.
It's also worth thinking about relative depreciation on ICE cars and EVs. Here's some figures that might give pause for though (S8 vs Model S, assuming same purchase price, kept for 5 years, doing 20k per annum - i.e. my usage history). I ran this data through this (US...) website
https://caredge.com/depreciation for 2 scenarios: (1) buying new, and (2) buying a 5 year old car, and the results are a bit interesting:
(A) NEW PURCHASE - S8 vs MODEL S: - An Audi S8 will depreciate 65% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $21,335.
- A Tesla Model S will depreciate 51% after 5 years and have a 5 year resale value of $34,700.
(B) BUYING A 5 YEAR OLD S8 vs MODEL S:
- An Audi S8 will depreciate a further 35% from years 6 to 10 years and have a 10 year resale value of $459
- A Tesla Model S will depreciate a further 30% from years 6 to 10 and have a 10 year resale value of $5,333.
For these reasons, I can't see why anyone would consider shelling out significant (i.e. >£10k) amounts of cash on any "premium" or large ICE vehicle from this point onwards. But others may disagree...