Check that the lock mechanism doesn't have a load of crud embedded in it, give it a good clean with some degreaser, etc. then re-lube and see how that goes. Does the lock work OK if you trigger it manually?
Also check that the striker is adjusted properly, could be that it's shrinking just a fraction in the cold and just stopping short of the contact point it needs.
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2010 Jag XF 3.0D Portfolio S
I know.. I know..
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