Scottish Independence

[IT]

Originally Posted by Dezzy

Oh yeah i've been trying to work out how it would work keeping the pound, as i'm a bit thick i just don't get it. If seperation is wanted how will it go down that the Bank of England set the interest rates and the like. Surly it would be the Euro.

The currency / financials is my main area of interest / concern. To use the euro, wont they need to re-apply to become part of Europe again

My main mortgage / bank is with RBS and I do wonder how on earth it could convert currency overnight. I dont see how it could, and the only thing that makes sense is the likes of RBS saying they'd immediately relocate to England..... I wish I had more insight into how Europe migrated to the Euro as that must have been the same issue on a far grander scale?

[HPsauce]

Originally Posted by IT

the only thing that makes sense is the likes of RBS saying they'd immediately relocate to England

I wouldn't be surprised if that happens anyway, whatever the outcome.

I guess, if there is separation, people will be given a choice where to put their money and whether to convert it to Numpties or whatever is used.

[sarg]

Almost all of the banks and insurance companies based in Scotland have already stated they will relocate to England

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8945a8f4-3...#axzz3Df8c5CH0

[HPsauce]

As that FT article says:

Analysts at Bernstein forecast that RBS and the other Scottish banks were likely to push ahead with a move south of the border even if there was a No vote. They estimated the cost of relocating at £500m to £1bn each, including the rewriting of every contract.

[tintin]

Originally Posted by sarg

Almost all of the banks and insurance companies based in Scotland have already stated they will relocate to England

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/8945a8f4-3...#axzz3Df8c5CH0

They're relocating their head offices ,not their operations.

The principal reason for this is that they'll be able to use the Bank of England (founded by a Scot, incidentally...) as the "lender of last resort", just like they did when they f**ked everything up a few years ago and were bailed out by the (British) taxpayer.

So it's bankers looking after themselves, really - as usual - rather than being a political decision…

I'm on the train north as I type this, just stopped at Penrith, will be over the border shortly..

[HPsauce]

Originally Posted by tintin

They're relocating their head offices ,not their operations.

The bulk of operations will inevitably follow, over time. And a lot faster if there's a Yes vote, in that case leaving just the small subset required to support local operations in an independent Scotland.
No point in speculating though as the vote is under way.

[tintin]

Originally Posted by IT

The currency / financials is my main area of interest / concern. To use the euro, wont they need to re-apply to become part of Europe again

My main mortgage / bank is with RBS and I do wonder how on earth it could convert currency overnight. I dont see how it could, and the only thing that makes sense is the likes of RBS saying they'd immediately relocate to England..... I wish I had more insight into how Europe migrated to the Euro as that must have been the same issue on a far grander scale?

In the event of a Yes vote today, applying to use the Euro is the least likely option. Have a look here, if you want a bit of more detailed analysis,

http://www.theguardian.com/news/real...-keep-sterling

which essentially says that keeping the pound is the best (least worst?) option for both sides of the border in the short term at least - and may require an independent Scotland to compromise somewhat on making some of the promised changes to tax and spending.

And incidentally, the Irish pound/punt (as pointed out in this article..) was linked to Sterling for eighty years after the Irish Republic got it's independence, so it's important to separate political posturing from what's actual possible here

[HPsauce]

Originally Posted by tintin

the Irish pound/punt (as pointed out in this article..) was linked to Sterling for eighty years

Indeed it was, but it was definitely its own currency, separate but linked/pegged.

I've no idea why that hasn't been proposed by the Yes campaigners, it seems much more realistic.

[tintin]

Originally Posted by HPsauce

The bulk of operations will inevitably follow, over time. And a lot faster if there's a Yes vote, in that case leaving just the small subset required to support local operations in an independent Scotland.

Highly unlikely, for both economic and general business reasons - these businesses have skilled workforces that they'll find it hard to replicate as cost effectively south of the border, and their shareholders won't support the increased operational cost of doing this, or the cost of the transition either.

To give a comparison: the cost of relocating some BBC departments - about 2700 staff - from London to Salford was estimated (admittedly in reports by London newspapers) as between £880 million and 1.2bn. So it's fair to say that relocating 90,000 (rUK's approximate "share" of the 100,000 who work in financial services in Scotland) would cost a wee bit more than that.

[HPsauce]

It will happen as businesses evolve and reorganise. Old skills become irrelevant and it's often easier to set up new centres and train new staff for new projects and products.
Over say 10 years it will almost all be gone, quicker with independence. Given the split of countries that will "resolve" many issues and costs related to redundancy as well.

The BBC example is a poor metaphor, that was forced to meet some strange political mantra, oh wait.......