EV/ICE tipping point reached?

[tintin]

The Beeb and Quentin Wilson seem to think so:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57253947

What do you think?

[MikkiJayne]

I think they're probably right. We're either there or its imminent for new cars.

But for those of us who can't afford a new car (EV or not), or even a good used EV, I wonder how long it will be until we are forced out of our £1000 ICE runabouts by hikes in road tax and fuel prices? Undoubtedly it will be before used EVs drop to that sort of price range.

I hope the technology to convert ICE cars to EV becomes affordable before fuel becomes unaffordable, but I fear it won't...

[steamship]

MJ beat me to my main issue with EV cars, and that is governments and manufacturers are forcing EV cars on the population whether they want them or not (and removing alternatives), and those who can't afford an EV car won't have any alternatives except public transport as ICE vehicles are consigned to the scrap heap.

I know it's a chicken and egg situation, but I still feel that the infrastructure isn't there yet to cope with the ever increasing numbers. The supply of EV cars is outstripping the demand for chargers.

Just by chance, I watched a video about a fortnight ago by Shmee150 of him charging his Taycan. His idea was to show how convenient it was, but it didn't pan out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwevvreoNjE

[HPsauce]

My suspicion is that it won't pan out anything like anyone is forecasting.
Unless there's a major and very rapid improvement in charging infrastructure and/or battery technology EV's won't suit everyone. I don't actually see them becoming totally dominant, other options will probably appear.

We'll change the way we look at transport and moving around, the mix of options will be different to now, especially depending where you live (e.g. my elder sons family in Hackney use electric bikes for most journeys).

And I don't necessarily see as many people "owning" a car. In fact I think back to my youth, living and working in London, I just hired a car when I needed one.
With autonomous vehicles on the horizon things will probably change more than we can imagine.

We've just been away for a few days; it's debatable if the trip could have been achieved as easily in an EV; there were certainly no charging options whatsoever where we stayed.
But we used the same vehicle for that, because we own it, as we do as a local runabout. With better/different options we might not need to do that.

[steamship]

Having said about the cost of EVs, curiosity got me wondering as to exactly how much they cost, and I came across an article on the CAR magazine website, with 'affordable EVs' in the title:

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electr...-electric-car/

Glad I wasn't drinking my tea at the time! 13 cars ranging in price from £20k-£40k and one £20k car has a 70 mile range. I think I'll be sticking to my LPG fuelled A8 for as long as I can. That seats four in comfort, has a massive boot (even with the LPG tank), takes 10 minutes to fill and even with only doing short (less than 5 mile) journeys, I still get 350 miles from a tank.

For now, Tesla have it covered with both range and infrastructure. Maybe time to try the EuroMillions tonight.

[ainarssems]

Demand for electricity is pushing up prices already. On the Agile Octopus half hourly changing rates I around this time last year I was averaging about 8p, now I am averaging 15-16p, and it rarely goes under 12p now. So I have switched to another provider 11.891p all 24h fixed for 12 months starting tomorrow. Electricity bill is expected to be a lot higher next winter for those who do not fix prices now https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p09k3ywd Soon EV will cot as much as petrol to drive per mile.

[Audifan]

I this this completely stupid that we are having EV being forced upon us!!! Here in America we don't have the infrastructure for this. Also another stupid thing about this is if you want to drive any long distance your going to have to find out where the public charging stations are and good luck trying to find them as they are very few. As far as I know here in my hometown, there is only one public charging station.

Let's say your a family and you bought a EV SUV (as this country is so much in love with SUV) and want to take a cross country road trip for your vacation. You're going to have to figure out where all the public charging stations are and it will be time consuming as there isn't many of them. Also your going to waste tons of time waiting every time you have to stop and recharge. How long does it take to fully change your EV, one hour?

Another problem will be is what to do with all the dead batteries. Interesting article I found about this.

I really think we need to focus on a different solution other then EV.

[roberto]

its not going to happen anytime soon

ooh i live in a flat 4 storys up (were is my charging point?)

(vandalism) ooh look this guy is charging his car overnight on the street,,lets nick his cable and weigh it in !

Dead Batteries ? that point is scarey

ive been watching how many diesels are about its a LOT
we will need 184,000 scrap yards to recycle them (but into what)

its not going to happen anytime soon

anybody who thinks the UK is poluted take a trip to Manila
we are super/super clean compaired to that place (yes ive been)

Aeroplanes are the biggest poluters and are in an ideal place to deposit into the ozone (cheers captain)

[steamship]

Originally Posted by roberto

ooh i live in a flat 4 storys up (were is my charging point?)

(vandalism) ooh look this guy is charging his car overnight on the street,,lets nick his cable and weigh it in !

I'm glad someone else has the same thoughts about these two issues. Even those living in a house with on-street parking are going to be faced with the prospect of lengthy cables (heaven help Roberto get that cable four storeys up), and then you have all the pedestrians who then have to take on skipping down the street to avoid the cables.

As for vandalism, I believe the cables are 'locked' in whilst charging, but that isn't going to stop any vandals, whether they just want to disconnect the cable for a bit of fun or want to nick the cable, as I don't see them worrying about damaging the vehicle in the process.

[27litres]

Originally Posted by roberto

Aeroplanes are the biggest poluters and are in an ideal place to deposit into the ozone (cheers captain)

Greenhouse gas emissions (Carbon) and Ozone depleting chemicals aren't generally linked.
Although airliners are linked with some ozone damage, it is considered trivial.
But airliners are massive polluters. The problem with aircraft is that it's more important that they run safely and reliably than cleanly. AvGas (plane petrol) still has lead in it to boost octane, reduce pinging and protect valve seats for instance.

The problem with the car is twofold:
1. its visible
2. It's privately owned by individuals.

It's easy to pass costs into the private sector. Where large public expenditure is required, governments baulk.

Governments around the world have spent decades convincing the average punter that car pollution is a massive issue. And it sort of is, but not to the proportion they would like you to believe. In Australia the latest stats stated that Transport creates 18% of the Australia's total carbon emissions. That's all transport, so Trains, Planes, and Road Transport (I'm not sure if it included Ships). Road transport was about 9% in total. Now this proportion could vary quite a bit in regions with cleaner power grids, as power is a major polluter (we have mostly coal, some hydro, slowly increasing solar, but no nuclear)

Now where road transport is bad is in air pollution in and around our cities, so it's very visible. In this aspect EVs excel (even if their pure green credentials are a bit over stated!).

Personally I like Toyota's approach. Go against convention and go hydrogen fuel cells! Provided the hydrogen comes from clean sources (ie solar electrolysis, not hydrocarbon steaming), fuel cells **** all over lithium batteries for being clean.